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RETAIL INVESTOR CONSENSUS: Canadian investors pile back into mutual funds in September October 18 2007 07:49 EST

CONSENSUS SENTIMENT: POSITIVE (Bear Market Indicator)

Mutual funds higher again in September

Monday, October 15, 2007

Investors regained courage and returned to mutual funds in September as the industry booked $993.8-million in net sales for the month.

This followed a $1.55-billion net outflow in August, when sentiment was jolted by credit-market anxiety provoked by the U.S. subprime mortgage meltdown. Last month's $993.8-million in sales compared with $930.5-million in September, 2006.

“With better than expected capital market returns for September, assets under management grew by $5.5-billion to finish the month at $701.4-billion,” Pat Dunwoody, vice-president of the Investment Funds Institute of Canada, said in releasing the numbers Monday.

This asset total — after three months of decline — was up by 15 per cent from September, 2006.

So far this year, the industry's net sales excluding reinvested distributions total $27.8-billion, more than double the $13-billion recorded in the first nine months of last year.

Fund-of-fund packages generated the bulk of last month's sales, with almost $890-million invested through these managed vehicles, while stand-alone fund sales totalled about $105-million.

Within the fund categories, net redemptions continued last month in Canadian stock funds, which shed $333.9-million. But global and international equity funds booked $160.8-million in net sales.

Balanced funds — conservative packages of stocks and bonds — continued pulling in money, attracting $878-million in September after posting net sales of $398.9-million during the August turmoil.

Bond funds had $125.5-million in September redemptions, easing from a $368.1-million outflow the previous month.

And money market funds, which suffered $915.5 million in August redemptions, produced September net sales of $328 million.

Consensus Watch’s Take: The Fed bailout in September and the subsequent resumption of Goldilocks 3.0 appears to have given the retail investors the green light to jump back in the market. True there have been short-term buying opportunities and the Sage Investor has taken advantage it. The reality is that if the retail investor is feeling pretty good about the stock market and makes strong moves into the market, it is usually an indicator that we’re approaching some choppy waters. This week’s confessions by the major US banks, is perhaps a signal of some more hand ringing.

AKR


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