Home | Wealth Primer | Contact | Consulting Services | AKR Blog | New Reports | Search Reports | Assessment


Portfolio Analysis for John Smith

This report examines your investment portfolio to assess if it is appropriate for someone of your demographic and risk profile. Your responses to the previous questions have been compiled and applied to our algorithmic model to evaluate your portfolio and to recommend a suitable model portfolio.

An investment portfolio at it's most simplest form is basically stocks, bonds, and cash. In reality, a portfolio is a window into your life. A portfolio reflects your ability to tolerate uncertainty. A portfolio reflects your ability to grow your portfolio through savings. In order to evaluate your portfolio, you must better understand and crystalize where you are in your life, where you want to go financially in your life, whether you are on the right path to get there, and whether you have the resources available to grow your portfolio. This report should give you some insight into these elements.

Let us begin.


Demographic Profile

The first thing we need to understand is your life history. An individual's investment decisions are often based on where a person is in their life. A single person in their 20's starting their first job has different investment objectives compared to a person in their late 40's and is self-employed. Based on your responses, we have segmented you within a specific demographic profile, that will allow you to better identify what kind of investments your portfolio should contain.

Despite what the media tells us, being in your 40’s does not make you certifiable for the old folks home. In fact they say now that, 40 is the new 30! From an investment demographic perspective you are relatively young. Your investment horizon (i.e. your time until you retire) is still relatively long right now, but it is starting to shrink. You will still be able to benefit from the magic of compound interest. This will allow you opportunities to take more risks with your investments. Your higher than normal knowledge of investments and the markets as well as your high tolerance for risk will allow you to target your asset allocations to areas of greater risk, but also with greater rewards. At the same time because your investment horizon is becoming shorter, you must also be mindful of preserving your scarce capital. You should still be able to withstand future shocks that will eventually take place in the market. As you are self-employed, your retirement income will be determined primarily through your investment savings, so it is important that you maximize your investment savings at this time. This can be difficult as your income stream is subject to ebbs and flows of your business. You truly are controlling your financial destiny and that can be more advantageous, especially with your higher then normal investment knowledge and risk tolerance. On top of this, being married and having kids will make it difficult to save, as the daily financial demands of raising a family tend to take priority over building a nest egg. Education is becoming more and more important for success in the New Economy. It is also becoming more and more expensive, so in addition to wholly saving for your retirement, you need to consider building savings for your children’s post-secondary education (college, university, apprenticeships etc). The modern family can only save so much and the financial services industry assumes it can be done easily. On the contrary, sacrifice and prioritization will need to be made. On the other hand, the potential of dual income with your spouse also creates opportunities for saving. Despite these constraints, you still have a unique opportunity, with some fine-tuning in your spending habits along with your investment knowledge to grow your personal capital and your children’s capital quite effectively.



Investor Risk Profile

Investing is frought with risk and uncertainty. Any investment is made on a premise of some outcome in the future, which may not necessarily occur. Stocks and bonds carry their own respective levels of risk which is constant throughout. Stocks are always more riskier investments than bonds. At the same time, stocks generate higher rewards and returns than bonds over a long period of time. People however, are different in their ability to tolerate uncertainty. Each person has a different risk tolerance level. Understanding the level of risk you are willing to incur is critical to assessing whether your portfolio is appropriately constructed.

Based on your responses, you fall within the category of the Growth oriented investor with a high tolerance for risk.

Your primary investment objective is to see the value of your investment savings grow significantly over the long term. You are willing to accept a greater level of risk that may lead to short-term declines in the overall value of your portfolio, in order to achieve long-term growth. You are comfortable with the concept that your portfolio may decline significantly during specific periods in time. You are high unlikely to panic if the financial markets enter bear markets.

We need to remind you that your risk tolerance is one component in determining an appropriate asset mix for you. Just because you have a high tolerance for risk does not mean you should have a portfolio comprising fully of stocks. Your age and personal circumstances are also important factors to consider.



Financial Position Analysis

In assessing a porfolio, it must be evaluated in the context of other assets and liabilities. You may have a portfolio that is worth $1 million dollars, but if you owe $1.2 million dollars, then that portfolio is not really that valuable. The following table assesses your total financial position and calculates the amount of equity (Assets less Liabilities) that have built up.


John Smith's Statement of Financial Position
ASSETS: Amt % of Assets
Liquid Assets (Cash, Chequing Accounts) $4,000 1.57%
Fixed Assets-Automobiles 15,000 5.91
Fixed Assets-Home/Property 210,000 82.68%
Investment Assets(RRSP, RRIF, Stocks/Bonds) 25,000 9.84
TOTAL ASSETS: $254,000 100%
     
LIABILITIES:    
Credit Card Debt $1,500 0.59%
Mortgage Debt 190,000 74.80
Car Debt 2,000 0.79
Other Debt (School, Business) 0 0.00
TOTAL LIABILITIES $193,500
     
TOTAL EQUITY: $60,500  

Your total equity (Assets minus Liabilities) is $60,500.

In analyzing your debt/leverage position, we will not discuss debt that is used to purchase appreciating assets (i.e your home and loans used for investment assets). We will instead focus on debt used to acquire depreciating assets. These include credit cards and other lines of credit.

 
Credit Card Debt Position

You have a manageable level of credit card debt in relation to your total assets. This is excellent and puts you in a very small minority. The average consumer carries approximately $3,000 in credit card debt. You appear to have a very good control over your spending habits and are diligent in paying off your balance in full. This will hold you in good stead as by having little credit card debt, you avoid having to pay excessive interest charges which can be as high as 29 percent annually. This will allow you to reallocate these interest costs to paying other debt down or building up your retirement portfolio.

 
Other Debt Position

You have little to no outstanding debt. This is excellent and puts you in a very small minority. You appear to have a very good control over your spending habits and this will hold you in good stead as by having no debt, you avoid having to pay excessive interest charges. This will allow you to reallocate these interest costs to paying other debt down or building up your retirement portfolio. You should be commended for showing such financial discipline.



Budget Analysis

A portfolio grows primarily through proper asset allocation based on risk and demographics. A portfolio also grows through savings as without any savings, you don't have much of a portfolio. As part of this evaluation, we have taken your estimates on how much income and expenses you incur on a monthly basis to deterimine if you indeed have savings to invest. Saving is a very difficult thing to do, but even in most situations where it is perceived to be difficult, opportunities abound. To assist you, we have included some ideas on how you can generate some extra potential investment dollars, and also demonstrate that with some discipline that these extra dollars can go a long way to "nurturing" your portfolio.


John Smith's Monthly Budget Statement
INCOME: Amt % of Income
Annual Primary Gross Income: $3,500  
Annual Additional Gross Income: 0  
Total Income $3,500  
     
EXPENSES:    
Rent/Mortgage (incl Water/Hydro/Heat) $1,447 47.41%
Car Loans 0 0.00
Other Bank Loans 0 0.00
School/Tuition Loans 0 0.00
Grocery 210 6.88
Food-Restaurants 50 1.64
Home/Tennant Insurance 12 0.39
Life Insurance 0 0.00
Car Insurance 111 3.64
Gasoline For Car 80 2.62
RRSP/Retirement Contributions 200 6.55
Personal Allowance 150 4.91
Cable TV 85 2.79
Satellite Radio 0 0.00
Internet Access 49 1.61
Home Phone 53 1.74
Cell Phone/PDA 40 1.31
Sports Leagues/Gym/Fitness Club Membership 0 0.00
Bank Service Charges 15 0.49
Bus/Transit Pass 0 0.00
Day Care 150 4.91
Entertainment 50 1.64
Travel/Vacation 0 0.00
Credit Card Payments 100 3.28
Children Activities (Not incl daycare) 250 8.19
Miscellaneous Costs 0 0.00
Alimony/Child Support 0 0.00
Maid/Housekeeping Services 0 0.00
Prescription Drugs/Health Care 0 0.00
     
Total Monthly Expenses $3,052
Total Monthly Savings $448 12.80%

Savings Analysis:

Based on your income and monthly expenses, we estimate that you have approximately $ 448.00 available each month for investment savings and emergency funds. On an annual basis you should be saving approximately $8,876.00. You are saving approximately 12.80% percent of your income each month.

Given your income, you should be saving more. We understand it is becoming more and more difficult to find extra dollars, but with some discipline, it can be done. We offer some suggestions below. They may only be a few dollars here and there, but over the course of a year, it can add up to a significant amount of cash:


Food (not incl Groceries) One of the most significant ways you can save money is by avoiding or reducing eating out. An average lunch at a food court is now $8. If you were to bring your lunch from home and eat out on a Friday, you could potenitally save approximately $130 per month or $1,500 annually.
Groceries Groceries and food is one of the most significant expenses. You have to eat. However more families and people are eating at restaurants. Grocery chains have seen this and are offering restaurant style meals, often at a cheaper price. Most times, major food chains are more expensive. Consider shopping at farmer markets that have lower overhead and charge less. Also the produce is much fresher and healthier. Consider also buying foods that are in season as they will be less expensive.
Car Insurance Car insurance premiums have been going up rapidly over the past few years. One way to get ahead of the curve is to increase your deductible. Instead of getting a low $300 deductible, raise it to $500 or $1000. Doing this will reduce your premium, sometimes by up to 10 percent. Also shop around as competition is pretty intense and you might be able to get a better deal somewhere else. Using your current monthly premium, you could potentially save $11.10 per month.
Gas With gas prices soaring, you might think it can be difficult to save any money. There are some ways though that you can minimize the costs. One way is to dollar-average. Gas stations change their prices constantly through out the day. Instead of filling up the tank, fill half the tank every couple of days. This way your average cost will be lower as you smooth out paying higher and lower prices. If this is difficult, consider filling up in the evening as prices tend to be the at least 10 percent lower from 7pm onwards. You could potentially save$8.00 per month.
Cable TV With the 500 channel universe in full effect combined with the emergence of High Definition technology, cable is is not as cheap as it once was. You might want to take a look and see how many of these premium channels you actually watch and simply look at an a la carte type of package. In addition, you might want to consider bundling your cable package with your Internet access and/or cell phone plan as most vendors now offer packages which can save you money.
Internet Access Normally, the best way people get their Internet access is through their office, but with companies limiting access to the Internet or filtering sites as well as monitoring traffic, most people have no choice but to get a high-speed connection for the home. In addition, you might want to consider bundling your Internet package with your cable TV package and/or cell phone plan as most vendors now offer packages which can save you money.
Home Telephone It is becoming more common for people to only have their cell phone as their primary phone and no home phone at all. If you get rid of your home line, you could potentially save $50 per month for a basic package. If you need to have a home phone, you might want to consider bundling your phone package with your cable TV/Internet package and/or cell phone plan as most vendors now offer packages which can save you money.
Cell Phone Cell phone costs often fluctuate widely and often exceed the basic plan rate if you use it frequently. In addition, premium services such as text messaging can add up to the total cost. Many people also pay more than they actually use so if you do not use your cell phone much, you might consider cancelling it or switching to a cheaper plan. It is also becoming more common for people to only have their cell phone as their primary phone and no home phone at all. If you have a home line, you might want to consider getting rid of your home line as you could potentially save $50 per month for a basic package. You also might want to consider bundling your cell phone package with your cable TV package and/or Internet plan as most vendors now offer packages which can save you money.
Bank Service Charges Banks are extremely effective at nickel and diming you on service charges. Most chequing/saving accounts charge arount $15-20 per month for basic banking. There are ways to save or even reduce these charges. The easiest way is to keep your balances above the minimum. Most banks will waive the bank charges if you keep your balance over $1,000. If you have multiple accounts, you should consider consolidating them into one account to ensure you have a higher balance. Doing this could potentially save you up to $300 per year. In addition there are those dreaded bank machine/ATM costs which can get ridiculous if you use an ATM outside your bank or one of the no-name machines. If possible, try to minimize the number of times you take out money and use your own bank ATMs to save on surcharges.
Entertainment The frugal voice within us would say that you should stay home and save, save, save. The reality is that life is short so get out there and enjoy it! You only get one shot at it. Balance is important, so instead of having a VIP weekend every weekend, maybe just have one VIP weekend or evening each month.
Credit Cards Traditional rules apply here. Pay your balance in full. Do not just make the minimum payments and only keep one or two cards and use them for emergencies. If you do get a card, look at bank credit cards that charge lower interest and have low annual fees.

If you were to incorporate all of the above suggestions, you could potentially derive $ 219.00 of savings monthly and $ 2,628.00 annually.

If you were to invest these savings in a reasonble portfolio of stocks and bonds annually and derived a return of 8.0 percent per year, this pool of annual additional savings would grow to $160,029 if you were to retire at 65. As you can see, it is in your best interest to try to begin adopting some level of thriftness in your day-to-day activites



Rainy Day Savings

Given the volatility of our economy, it is not unreasonable to live in periods where we our out of work or unable to generate certain income. At this point, it is important to have savings available for such pressures. We call this "Rainy Day" savings. Experts say that you should have enough savings to cover 4-6 months with no income. Based on your income and monthly expenses, we estimate that you have approximately 1.3 months of Rainy Day savings available.




Retirement Projection

The most common investment objective for any individual is to build their portfolio to provide them a comfortable level of support when they retire. Building on this, the most common question, individuals ask is "Will I have enough savings to supplement my lifestyle in retirement?"

To give you a sense of how much your savings you will have at retirement (age 65), we have calculated the future value of your portfolio at various time points up to age 65. We have used an average rate of return of 8.0 percent which is a reasonable level of return for someone with a similar risk tolerance and demographic profile as yourself. As you will see, the power of compounding interest can be quite dramatic especially as you build up some critical mass in your savings. The effect is more pronounced, the earlier you begin to put savings away.

In addition to your income from your savings, you will be entitled to receive income from other Canadian social programs such as the Canada Pension Plan and Old Age Security. To give you a sense we have attempted to calculate the benefits you could potentially receive from CPP and OAS at age 65.


Projected Income From Personal Savings
Age Projected Value
47 $50,812
49 $64,259
52 $88,740
54 $108,501
65 $192,334

Assuming your savings at age 65 were to generate a return of 6 percent, you would have approximately $962 of PRE-TAX income available each month and $11,540 of PRE-TAX savings income available annually during your retirement.



Projected Benefits from Canada Pension Plan (CPP)

The Canada Pension Plan is a monthly benefit paid to individuals who have contributed to the CPP. The pension is designed to replace up to 25 percent of earnings on which the contribution is based.

To qualify for the CPP benefit, the individual must be a) at least 65 years of age OR b) between 60 and 64 years of age and meets certain requirements (eg. stopped working, earn less than specified amount).

The monthly CPP benefit is calculated as 25 percent of the average of the last 5 years of income before turning age 65. The current maximum benefit is $844.58.

Based on the income information you provided, we have calcuated your estimated monthly CPP benefit at age 65 to be $1,434.69 per month. and $ 17,216.22 annually.

The benefit is based on the assumptions the CPP program will continue to be liquid at retirement and that the CPP benefit is indexed to inflation at 2.5 percent per year as well as that you will apply to claim the benefit at age 65. If you choose to claim the CPP benefit before 65, the benefit would be reduced or "clawed-back". If you chose to claim the CPP benefit after you turned 65, the benefit would be higher.


Projected Benefits from Old Age Security (OAS)

The Old Age Security benefit pays a monthly benefit to all Canadians aged 65 and older who meet certain residence requirements, specifically, you must be a Canadian resident the day before your application for OAS benefits is approved. In addition supplementary benefits are paid to low-income Canadians age 60 or over. The OAS benefit is adjusted quarterly reflect inflation.

The benefit calculation is a bit complicated, but on average the current monthly benefit is $460.92 per month. The maximum benefit paid is currently $487.54 per month.

The amount of the benefit is determined by how long you have lived in Canada. If you have lived in Canada after aged 18 for periods totalling 40 years, you may qualify for a full OAS pension benefit.

Based on the income information you provided, we have calcuated your estimated monthly OAS benefit at age 65 to be $ 816.87 per month. and $ 9,802.48 annually.

The benefit is based on the assumptions that inflation from now until you turn 65 will average 2.5 percent annually and that you will apply to claim the benefit at age 65. If you choose to claim the OAS benefit before 65, the benefit would be reduced or "clawed-back". If you chose to claim the OAS benefit after you turned 65, the benefit would be higher. We also assume that the Old Age Security program will still be in existence and fully funded when you retire.


Projected Benefits from Guaranteed Income Supplement (GIS)

The Guaranteed Income Supplement provides additional money, on top of the Old Age Security pension, to low-income seniors living in Canada. To be eligible for the GIS benefit, you must be receiving the Old Age Security pension and meet the income requirements. You must apply annually to receive the GIS. Given you are currently in a low income bracket, you may be likely to qualify for the GIS benefit at age 65.

The benefit calculation is a bit complicated, but on average the monthly benefit for spouse of a person who is getting pension benefits is $251.45 per month. The maximum benefit paid is $392.01 per month for a total annual benefit of $18,864. The monthly benefit for spouse of a person who is not getting pension benefits is $399.34 per month. The maximum benefit paid is $597.53 per month for a total annual benefit of $34,560.

Because your income is greater than the required amount, you would be ineligible to receive the GIS benefit.


Total Income At Retirement

The following summarizes the the total pre-tax monthly and annual pre-tax income you could receive at age 65.


John's Projected Pre-Tax Income At Retirement
Source Monthly Income Annual Income
Savings $962 $11,540
CPP 1,435 17,216
OAS 817 9,802
GIS 0 0
Total Income $3,213 $38,559

Based on these estimates, you would be earning 91.81 percent of your projected gross income when you retire at age 65 (assuming a 2.5 percent annual inflation rate).

NOTE:
We have purposely not included any income you might receive as a result of participating in a Defined Benefit or Defined Contribution pension plan throughout your employment career. Many corporations are phasing out or scaling back pension benefits to their employees. While there is much talk within the financial services industry that Government sponsored pension benefit programs such as the Canada Pension Plan and the Old Age Security program will cease to exist in the future after the large wave of baby boomers retire, the actions of the Federal Government in the last decade to increase CPP payroll deductions as well as diversifying their investment portfolio into a variety of investment vehicles have proven effective to ensure the program will be funded adequately well into the future. It is important to note that the CPP, OAS, and GIS pension programs are NOT meant to be primary sources of retirement income for Canadians, but to be a complementary income source. As a result, you should view these projections as an indication of what your retirement income would be if you had to rely solely on your savings and available government social programs.

At first glance this is a very good rate of income to have in retirement, however just as income goes up due to inflation, daily expenses go up and most times it is faster than inflation. The table summarizes below your total retirement income as well as your projected expenses at retirement.



John's Net Savings During Retirement
Total Projected After-Tax Income at Retirement $30,847
Total Projected Expenses at Retirement $64,627
Total Projected Savings at Retirement $( 33,780)

To calcuate your after-tax income, we took your projected total pre-tax income at retirement and used a marginal tax rate that would be appropriate for your level of retirement income, which in your case would be 20 percent. Because your income at retirement is lower, you will normally pay less tax in your retirement years. We also took your current annual expenses and projected those costs at an inflation rate of 2.5 percent to age 65.

Based on these projections, you would not have enough retirement income to maintain your current lifestyle if you choose to keep living at your current level. The bright side though is people in their retirement years incur lower living expenses as many of the daily expenses they have incurred up to retirement are a result of work related expenses (transportation, clothes, lunches) as well as family related expenses like raising their kids. As a result, if you were to streamline your lifestyle a bit or increase your retirement savings through more aggressive investment decsions, this deficit could fall to a more manageable level. Another factor to consider is that you will be getting older and health care will be a factor. There is a liklihood that you will have to pay for future health care costs such as prescription drugs, physiotherapy, hospital test, hip replacements etc. so you should anticipate these types of financial pressures.




Portfolio Components

At this point, we have attempted to identify your demographic profile, your level of risk tolerance, and your current ability to generate savings to "nurture" your portfolio. Now let's look at your portfolio itself.


John Smith's Current Investment Portfolio
  Amount % of Portfolio
Individual Stocks (Not incl ETF's) 10,000 40.00
Stock Mutual Funds/ETF's/Hedge Funds/Balanced Funds 5,000 20.00
Individual Bonds (incl GIC's/Canada Saving Bonds) 0 0.00
Bond Mutual Funds/ETF's 0 0.00
Cash/Money Market Mutual Funds 10,000 40.00
Total Portfolio Value $25,000 100%


Asset Mix Analysis

Based on the demographic, portfolio, and risk profile information you have provided, we have created the following model portfolio (shaded in grey) that would be typcial for someone with a similar background, experience and risk tolerance as yours. We have taken your current portfolio dollar value and assigned our optimal portfolio weightings to indicate how much of portfolio should be allocated to the various assets classes.


John Smith's Optimal Investment Portfolio (Balanced)
Asset Class Current Allocation(%) Model Allocation(%) Desirable Allocation
Cash/Short Term Investments 40.00 10.00 $2,500
Bonds 0.00 35.00 $8,750
Canadian Stocks     20.00 $5,000
U.S. Stocks     15.00 $3,750
Global Stocks     10.00 $2,500
Total Stock Allocation 60.00 45.00  
Total Portfolio 100% 100% $25,000


Your portfolio has a higher proportion of stocks compared to a typical portfolio that reflects your demographic and risk tolerance. Your portfolio has a lower proportion of bonds compared to a typical portfolio that reflects your demographic and risk tolerance. Your portfolio has a higher proportion of cash compared to a typical portfolio that reflects your demographic and risk tolerance.


Optimal Portfolio Breakdown

The following section examines in detail the components of your optimal portfolio. In identifying appropriate securities to include in your portfolio, we have chosen to make use of Exchange Traded Funds (ETF). ETFs are similar to mutual funds with the one big difference being they are traded as stocks on most global stock exchanges. Typically, ETFs try to replicate a stock market index such as the S&P 500 or the TSX/S&P Composite Index, a market sector such as energy or technology, or a commodity such as gold or petroleum. They provide investor's with instant exposure and diversification to broad markets at a much lower management expense costs. There are several companies that offer ETF's, the most notable being Barclays Global Advisor's which sell the iShares products and Claymore Investments. The great thing about ETF's is that they provide the market rate of return. For example if the Nasdaq 100 goes up 10 percent, owning an ETF which tracks the NASDAQ index would yield you 10 percent (transaction fees not included). Actively managed funds which include the traditional mutual funds that are offered by a Fidelity or an AGF Mutual Funds historically underperform the market. Many studies have shown that 80 percent of actively managed mutual funds fail to earn the market rate of return. To be fair, it is extremely difficult to consistently outperform the market, so if you can get a market rate of return from an ETF vehicle then you are essentially outperforming 80 percent of the "experts".

NOTE: While analysts at AKR Capital Research may own ETF's in the iShares family or other ETF products, AKR Capital Research does not earn commissions or trailer fees from promoting the Barclays Global Advisors or other wealth management firms. Disclaimer


Cash:

As your demographic and risk profile are conducive to a balance portfolio style, you will need to have a small allocation towards cash not so much for liquidity reasons, but to have assets ready to deploy into stocks or bonds when new investment opportunities arise. Ideally this allocation should be in the form of a Money Market mutual fund that invests in 90-day government Treasury Bills. They are very liquid and secure and can be cashed anytime. We do not recommend that you simply keep your cash allocation in a savings type account, as the interest earned is negligible. These days Money Market funds are returning on average 2.5 percent annually, but if Central Banks continue to raise interest rates, these type of funds will provide slightly higher returns. Your brokerage will likely have a selection of Money Market type funds that you can choose.


Bonds/Fixed Income:

Under a balanced portfolio model, we normally would allocate a meaningful portion of capital to fixed income securities. As the goal is to generate growth while preserving capital, allocating a significant amount of cash to bonds would help achieve the desired objectives. This approach takes even more significance given recent economic events.

In Canada, interest rates have been steadily rising up until this past June, when the Bank of Canada decided to pause. Up until this point, returns from bond investments have not been very good as rising rates lead to falling bond prices. This pause is significant as it indicates that rates are likely to stay at current levels are even drop. Canada has a very strong fiscal position with 10 plus years of federal surpluses, so it can afford to keep rates lower. Even if Canada’s economy were to slow down, it is much more insulated thanks to the steady demand for its natural resources. As a result, an opportunity currently exists to build some exposure to Canadian bonds. The best way for a retail investor such as you would be through an ETF like the iShares CDN Bond Index Fund, which invests in a broad array of Canadian government and corporate bonds. As rates begin to drop, bond prices will increase, thus creating a higher bond returns.

In the US, it is a different story. The Federal Reserve has also been raising interest rates steadily (17 times over the past 2+ years) and in the last meeting voted to pause. The impact of the rising rates along with rising inflation due to increasing oil prices has been a deceleration in the US economy led by a cooling in the housing market. The yield curve has been inverted most of 2006 implying that an economic slowdown is on the horizon. While these events would lead one to conclude that interest rates will trend down, which subsequently would increase bond prices, other events are in play. The US is running a massive current account deficit. It has managed to keep its economy going by essentially putting it on a credit card. The problem with this is that by running up it’s credit card balance, it forces lenders like China and Japan to demand higher rates of return. Compounding the issue is that inflation as gas and oil prices show no signs of retreating and that will impact goods and services produced. As a result, despite a slowing economy, the US may have no choice but to further raise rates and that does not help bond prices. We anticipate a major economic adjustment in US because of these conflicting forces at play.


US Equities:

The United States is the largest economy in the world, so it is quite obvious that any portfolio should have meaningful allocation towards American stocks. To achieve an appropriate diversification in US stocks, we would encourage the use of ETF’s such as the iShares S&P500 Index Fund which tracks the return of the 500 largest capitalized US stocks as well as the iShares Russell 2000 Index Fund which tracks the total return of the top 2000 American stocks. It provides a broader diversification as it encompasses more mid and small capitalization stocks.

Again, the story is the same. The US economy appears to be heading towards an economic slowdown. Rising interest rates have cooled down the once hot housing market. Inflation from high gas prices is putting a curb on consumer spending. In addition the United States is running a massive current account deficit, which will put pressure on the US dollar. As the US is addicted to cheap imports from China, a lower dollar will generate inflation, which will further exasperate the situation. It is expected that the US economy will enter a difficult period of economic adjustment. As a result, it would be prudent to slowly build up a position in US stocks, as it is likely the US stock market will be under pressure in the short to medium term. Buying on large pullbacks would be an appropriate action to establish a US position.


Global Equities

It is important that your portfolio have an appropriate exposure to foreign stocks. While the US is the dominant economy in the world, new players like India and China are entering the fray and over time will prove to be equally dominant in economic landscape.

Your global equity allocation should be diversified across the emerging global markets (China, India, Asia, and South America) and the traditional western foreign markets (Europe, Japan, Australia). The iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index Fund will give you exposure to the emerging market indexes, while the iShares CDN MSCI EAFE Index Fund will give you exposure to the traditional foreign market indexes.

It is important to be aware that foreign equities, especially those with exposure to emerging markets can be extremely volatile but can deliver high returns. It is important to note these types of investments must be made with long-term investment horizons in mind. The best time to build positions is when they have been beaten up or on the dips. This year, emerging market ETF’s have performed very well up until June but then fell by almost 20 percent within a month, so tread cautiously as you build your positions.

If you are looking to have more direct exposure to specific markets like China and India, there are several ETF’s out there. For China there is the iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index Fund that tracks the 20 largest and liquid stocks that trade on the Xinua index. For India, there is no pure ETF that trades in North American stock exchanges. The iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index Fund does contain stocks that trade on the Mumbai Stock Exchange.


Canadian Equities

The Canadian stock market represents only 6 percent of the world equity market, but we feel it is important to have a meaningful allocation to the domestic economy. Given that you spend a significant time researching stocks, we offer several options from an ETF perspective as well some individual stock premises.

The Canadian market has enjoyed an impressive few years of growth, driven by surging commodity prices in oil, gas, gold and other precious metals. The rising demand for raw materials by emerging economies such as China and India have fuelled this rapid growth and it appears likely that this appetite will not shrink dramatically. As a result, the Canadian economy is slightly more insulated from potential shocks that may occur in the US and other industrial economies. Having said that, the TSX Composite has become sharply skewed to broad commodity and financial services firms. The representation is similar to the late 1990’s when technology companies dominated the index, led by Nortel Networks, which comprised a staggering 32 percent of the Index. As a result, we feel there is a great deal of risk built into the index so holding an Ishares ETF that tracks the S&P/TSX 60 Index or S&P/TSX Composite Index would be a risky proposition right now.

In terms of individual stocks, from our experience as an equity research firm, the best stocks to invest in have the following characteristics:

  1. They create real tangible wealth (i.e. they generate returns on their scarce capital that are in excess of the costs required to obtain that capital).
  2. They sell at below their economic value. (i.e. high earning yields)
  3. They tend to operate in beaten down and underperforming sectors.

At <AKR Capital Research, we specialize in the first tenant by using the Economic Profit model in measuring the performance Canadian companies. The EP model measures the residual wealth created by a firm by filtering out accounting items that can distort a company’s profitability.

For the second tenant of determining which companies are on sale, we have developed the AKR Value Ranking, which ranks non-financial Canadian companies on the TSX/S&P Composite on the basis of the best combined EP and EP Yield (EP/Share Price). The rankings are updated daily.

For the third tenant of identifying underperforming sectors, in the Canadian market this year, the Health Care, Consumer Staples, and Information Technology sector have been laggards in 2006. Within these sectors, companies like Rothmans, (Google)Metro Inc., (Google), Aastra Technologies Inc., (Google), and Biovail Corporation, (Google)which are generating solid Economic Profit despite weakness in their industries, offer compelling value.


Other Recommendations:

As you have kids, you might want to consider opening a Registered Education Savings Plan account as the program allows you to take advantage of the Canada Education Savings Grant (CESG), in which the Federal Government contributes to your savings depending on how much you contribute You are at an age where you are entitled to apply for government old age supplements such as CPP and Old Age Security, which can provide you with some cash flow.

If you haven't done so already, you should consider opening up a tax deferred account such as a Self-Directed RRSP. Self Directed RRSP's, unlike traditional RRSP accounts which limit you to a single type of investment (stocks, bonds, cash etc.), allow you to invest in a variety of investment products including individual stocks, Exchange Traded Funds, bonds, mutual funds, and other derivative products. If you have multiple RRSP accounts already, you should consider consolidating them into a single Self-Directed RRSP account for ease of management. Most major banks and their corresponding discount brokerage divisions offer Self Directed RRSP Accounts. Most carry an annual administration charge ranging from $25 to $100 per year, but will waive it if you are a long-time customer. You are at an age where you are entitled to apply for government old age supplements such as CPP and Old Age Security, which can provide you with some cash flow.


Summary

We've hit you with a lot information today. Information about your life, your tendenacies, your savings habits, and information about where you are going in terms of financial independence. Below is a summary of the key points that you should take away from this assessment.


  • Despite what the media tells us, being in your 40’s does not make you certifiable for the old folks home. In fact they say now that, 40 is the new 30! From an investment demographic perspective you are relatively young. Your investment horizon (i.e. your time until you retire) is still relatively long right now, but it is starting to shrink. You will still be able to benefit from the magic of compound interest. This will allow you opportunities to take more risks with your investments. Your higher than normal knowledge of investments and the markets as well as your high tolerance for risk will allow you to target your asset allocations to areas of greater risk, but also with greater rewards. At the same time because your investment horizon is becoming shorter, you must also be mindful of preserving your scarce capital. You should still be able to withstand future shocks that will eventually take place in the market. As you are self-employed, your retirement income will be determined primarily through your investment savings, so it is important that you maximize your investment savings at this time. This can be difficult as your income stream is subject to ebbs and flows of your business. You truly are controlling your financial destiny and that can be more advantageous, especially with your higher then normal investment knowledge and risk tolerance. On top of this, being married and having kids will make it difficult to save, as the daily financial demands of raising a family tend to take priority over building a nest egg. Education is becoming more and more important for success in the New Economy. It is also becoming more and more expensive, so in addition to wholly saving for your retirement, you need to consider building savings for your children’s post-secondary education (college, university, apprenticeships etc). The modern family can only save so much and the financial services industry assumes it can be done easily. On the contrary, sacrifice and prioritization will need to be made. On the other hand, the potential of dual income with your spouse also creates opportunities for saving. Despite these constraints, you still have a unique opportunity, with some fine-tuning in your spending habits along with your investment knowledge to grow your personal capital and your children’s capital quite effectively.

  • Your demographic profile puts you in the category of a Growth oriented investor with a high tolerance for risk. Your primary investment objective is to see the value of your investment savings grow significantly over the long term. You are willing to accept a greater level of risk that may lead to short-term declines in the overall value of your portfolio, in order to achieve long-term growth. You are comfortable with the concept that your portfolio may decline significantly during specific periods in time. You are high unlikely to panic if the financial markets enter bear markets.
  • Your total equity (Assets minus Liabilities) is $60,500.
  • You have a manageable level of credit card debt in relation to your total assets. This is excellent and puts you in a very small minority. You appear to have a very good control over your spending habits and are diligent in paying off your balance in full. This will hold you in good stead as by having little credit card debt, you avoid having to pay excessive interest charges which can be as high as 29 percent annually. This will allow you to reallocate these interest costs to paying other debt down or building up your retirement portfolio.
  • You have little to no outstanding debt. You appear to have a very good control over your spending habits and this will hold you in good stead as by having no debt, you avoid having to pay excessive interest charges. This will allow you to reallocate these interest costs to paying other debt down or building up your retirement portfolio.
  • You have approximately $ 448.00 available each month for investment savings and emergency funds. On an annual basis you should be saving approximately $8,876.00. You are saving approximately 12.80% percent of your income. Given your income, you should be saving more.
  • Based on your income and monthly expenses, we estimate that you have approximately 1.3 months of Rainy Day savings available.
  • It is estimated that you would be earning 91.81 percent of your projected gross income when you retire at age 65 (assuming a 2.5 percent annual inflation rate).
  • You would not have enough retirement income to maintain your current lifestyle if you choose to keep living at your current level.
  • Your portfolio has a higher proportion of stocks compared to a typical portfolio that reflects your demographic and risk tolerance. Your portfolio has a lower proportion of bonds compared to a typical portfolio that reflects your demographic and risk tolerance. Your portfolio has a higher proportion of cash compared to a typical portfolio that reflects your demographic and risk tolerance.

We hope that this assessment has validated what you already knew about your portfolio or given you a bit of a reality check. We've given you some ideas on how to improve your savings so that you can build up your nest egg and at the same time offered some investment ideas and concepts that can add long-term value to your portfolio. More importantly, we hope that this analysis has given you some insight into the person who we think has your best financial interests at heart. This advisor is the one you see in the bathroom mirror every morning. You.



Home | Wealth Primer | Contact | Consulting Services | AKR Blog | New Reports | Search Reports | Assessment
Copyright 2006

Disclaimer